A stochastic forecast for the Croatian pension system

Stochastic Forecast of the Financial Sustainability of Basic Pension in China

The paper focuses on the stochastic forecast of the financial sustainability ofbasic pension, based on predictions for the population of China. The population was calculated iteratively by using Leslie matrix. An auto-regressive moving average model was adapted for the predictions of the fertility rates and the mortality rates. The Monte Carlo stochastic method was adapted for the projections o...

an investigation about the appropriate stochastic modeling framework for agricultural insurance pricing

با توجه به اینکه بیمه محصولات کشاورزی در ایران بیشتر جنبه ای حمایتی دارد و خسارات گزارش شده عموما بیش از حق بیمه های دریافت شده است، در این پایان نامه به جهت تعیین قیمت بیمه محصولات کشاورزی (گندم دیم) از فرآیندهای نوفه شلیک به عنوان مدلی مناسب استفاده شده است. بر اساس داده های صندوق بیمه کشاورزی از خسارات اعلام شده در سال زراعی 1388-1389 گندم دیم، در این پایان نامه حق بیمه خالص و ناخالص این محص...

a benchmarking approach to optimal asset allocation for insurers and pension funds

uncertainty in the financial market will be driven by underlying brownian motions, while the assets are assumed to be general stochastic processes adapted to the filtration of the brownian motions. the goal of this study is to calculate the accumulated wealth in order to optimize the expected terminal value using a suitable utility function. this thesis introduced the lim-wong’s benchmark fun...

The Appropriate Exchange Rate System and the Regulation and Forecast of Exchange Rate for Iran's Economy

A Defined Benefit Pension Fund ALM Model through Multistage Stochastic Programming

We consider an asset-liability management (ALM) problem for a defined benefit pension fund (PF). The PF manager is assumed to follow a maximal fund valuation problem facing an extended set of risk factors:  due to the longevity of the    PF members, the inflation affecting salaries in real terms and future incomes, interest rates and market factors affecting jointly the PF liability and asset p...